I keep getting this sinking feeling that this is all leading up to a precise and coordinated attack of evil.
Russia bombards the EU, the US attacks Greenland and Canada, while Israel finally bulldozes Gaza and Iran. China takes Taiwan and the south sea.
All at the same time so NATO is overwhelmed and can’t decisively defend it all without risking spreading too thin. No matter what happens, one of the bad guys gains ground.
I honestly have no idea if this is even possible, it’s based on a dream I had a few weeks ago.
The thing is the EU is mostly concerned about Europe, while the US wants to play world police. So if China would invade Taiwan and NATO is without the US, I’m not sure they are going to get involved, it would open the gate for Russia. If the US is still part of NATO I’m not sure what will happen as it’s not an article 5 event. So the other NATO countries are not automatically involved even if the US is.
Russia has an army that is capable of invading another country. The only country in NATO that have done that is the US.
I don’t think Russia invading the whole of the EU is a realistic possibility but grabbing a few ex Soviet countries off the border…
Graveyard of empires for a reason. They can try to OORAH!! MISSLES AWAY!!! Iran all they want, the resulting occupation will NEVER be a peaceful one, as there will ALWAYS be rebels in the hills and deserts.
Israel, Iran, China, and Taiwan are all outside the scope of NATO.
Canada, Greenland, and most of the EU do fall under NATO protection though. It’s a defensive alliance with well defined boundaries, member countries may have interests in other parts of the world, but since none of Israel, Iran, China, or Taiwan are NATO members it’s not something NATO deals with. Unless one of those countries were to attack NATO of course.
Russia is in no shape to make war on Europe right now, they have their hands full with just Ukraine, and face economic collapse. Iran is in a similar situation. Trump has stopped his 51st state talk, but he’s insane so you never know. China invading Taiwan? Trump is weak (he only talks tough) so you never know. But China is authoritarian and as we’ve seen of late authoritarian regimes don’t seem to be doing well running military campaigns so it’s possible they don’t even have the capability of invading Taiwan.
China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I can see trump believing something so stupid as that, and putin might saber rattle about it, but the majority of the world, and china/india especially in this situation, probably would not go along with it. Europe still has functioning nuclear capabilities. Putin does not want nukes hitting his country, full stop. China does not want a nuclear situation kicking off with their neighbor to the north, and knows that the US under trump would likely turn on them despite a war ruining both countries. India no more wants china controlling the waters to their east than the countries immediately around those waters do, and would likely cause issues, which china also doesn’t want. As we’ve seen in the modern times with ukraine and some of the middle east conflicts and the india/pakistan border, nuclear powers tiptoe around anything that resembles direct conflict. The recent dogfight over the border was a pretty good idea of how reserved even ‘open’ conflict is.
So putin is likely not going to do anything more than a symbolic grunt at his western border, and china will just slowly weather down taiwan if the u.s. is withdrawing its influence. The idea of reunification isn’t THAT taboo in taiwan, and the candidates for it gather a decent chunk of votes. If the u.s. starts acting like a bitch around the world (oh, gee, just look at what’s happening right now), the sentiment towards it and china could easily see a rapid shift.
I keep getting this sinking feeling that this is all leading up to a precise and coordinated attack of evil.
Russia bombards the EU, the US attacks Greenland and Canada, while Israel finally bulldozes Gaza and Iran. China takes Taiwan and the south sea.
All at the same time so NATO is overwhelmed and can’t decisively defend it all without risking spreading too thin. No matter what happens, one of the bad guys gains ground.
I honestly have no idea if this is even possible, it’s based on a dream I had a few weeks ago.
Disturbing thought though.
The thing is the EU is mostly concerned about Europe, while the US wants to play world police. So if China would invade Taiwan and NATO is without the US, I’m not sure they are going to get involved, it would open the gate for Russia. If the US is still part of NATO I’m not sure what will happen as it’s not an article 5 event. So the other NATO countries are not automatically involved even if the US is.
Russia is losing against Ukraine, the fuck they gonna do against EU, unless they use nukes in which case who cares, it’s game over
Russia has an army that is capable of invading another country. The only country in NATO that have done that is the US. I don’t think Russia invading the whole of the EU is a realistic possibility but grabbing a few ex Soviet countries off the border…
Of the 190 odd countries in the world the UK have invaded something like 175 of them.
You are talking complete nonsense.
Israel might bulldoze Gaza and maybe a few Mashriq countries, but it would suffocate on Iran. That’s a fucking big country.
Graveyard of empires for a reason. They can try to OORAH!! MISSLES AWAY!!! Iran all they want, the resulting occupation will NEVER be a peaceful one, as there will ALWAYS be rebels in the hills and deserts.
Israel, Iran, China, and Taiwan are all outside the scope of NATO.
Canada, Greenland, and most of the EU do fall under NATO protection though. It’s a defensive alliance with well defined boundaries, member countries may have interests in other parts of the world, but since none of Israel, Iran, China, or Taiwan are NATO members it’s not something NATO deals with. Unless one of those countries were to attack NATO of course.
Russia is in no shape to make war on Europe right now, they have their hands full with just Ukraine, and face economic collapse. Iran is in a similar situation. Trump has stopped his 51st state talk, but he’s insane so you never know. China invading Taiwan? Trump is weak (he only talks tough) so you never know. But China is authoritarian and as we’ve seen of late authoritarian regimes don’t seem to be doing well running military campaigns so it’s possible they don’t even have the capability of invading Taiwan.
China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I can see trump believing something so stupid as that, and putin might saber rattle about it, but the majority of the world, and china/india especially in this situation, probably would not go along with it. Europe still has functioning nuclear capabilities. Putin does not want nukes hitting his country, full stop. China does not want a nuclear situation kicking off with their neighbor to the north, and knows that the US under trump would likely turn on them despite a war ruining both countries. India no more wants china controlling the waters to their east than the countries immediately around those waters do, and would likely cause issues, which china also doesn’t want. As we’ve seen in the modern times with ukraine and some of the middle east conflicts and the india/pakistan border, nuclear powers tiptoe around anything that resembles direct conflict. The recent dogfight over the border was a pretty good idea of how reserved even ‘open’ conflict is.
So putin is likely not going to do anything more than a symbolic grunt at his western border, and china will just slowly weather down taiwan if the u.s. is withdrawing its influence. The idea of reunification isn’t THAT taboo in taiwan, and the candidates for it gather a decent chunk of votes. If the u.s. starts acting like a bitch around the world (oh, gee, just look at what’s happening right now), the sentiment towards it and china could easily see a rapid shift.
I agree with you, but my tinfoil hat is telling me to dig a shelter, preserve food and start making ammo. You know, for game hunting.