Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats’ chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory.
Silver’s FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats’ chances as “Lean D” as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved. The forecast has now moved into the “Likely D” category, marking a further shift in the model’s outlook.
Silver’s model uses polling data and other indicators to estimate the likelihood of different election outcomes. Its probabilities are estimates rather than guarantees, and the outlook can change as new polling and other information become available, but the latest upgrade suggests the model increasingly favors Democrats in the battle for the chamber.
I don’t care what anyone predicts. We’ve got to keep pushing. This has to be a landslide, a sea change, whatever phrase you wish, the result must be an unequivocal rebuke of the current administration.
Yeah I want the safe red seats to go blue. I want us to be staring down the barrel of congress that might push a medical freedom amendment to the constitution, I want us to have a congress where we’ve got democrats to spare when it comes to trying the orange fuck. And I want our safe seats to be historical blowouts.
I’m probably not getting that, but dammit I’m going to demand it, and I’m going to vote for it.
Aye Aye Captain!!