Don’t worry, it’s DEFINITELY not because they would need to disclose their finances to investors. Just keep pouring money in and everything will turn out fine!
Anyone who has gone through an IPO knows how fucking rigorous all of the audits and reporting are for investors. Guaranteed 1000% that they failed the audit, or worse they didn’t even get to the audit stage, or as you said their finances they know are shit. It is zero surprise to me that they’re waiting.
Where was this rigorous audit for SpaceX?
Its result was and is aggregated by some freaks here
Their own numbers are documented here:
https://ir.spacex.com/investors/default.aspx
Including all their bullshit Musk-AI spendings. I have no idea why anyone thought this to be a good investment or a good company - they did do that audit and published the results, people still flocked (…) to it
I mean I hate Musk as much as the next Musk hater, but I can understand why SpaceX IPO’d and why OpenAI would hide their audit and finances.
SpaceX literally made self-landing rockets. They’re not a Tesla or a Boring Company bullshit scam. They did something that was amazing, and still is, and opened the door to much cheaper launches into orbit, meaning they can get so many government contracts for anything they need to do in space.
It is WAY cheaper to put stuff in orbit now thanks to SpaceX. That’s why they also went for low earth orbit internet and did starlink. Their own tech made starlink possible. Now I’d never use starlink because fuck Musk, but this is a direct result of SpaceX doing groundbreaking work.
Literally everything Musk does rides on the popularity of SpaceX actually making a massive achievement in rocketry. Tesla fucking sucks and doesn’t even make the best self driving electric vehicles. The Boring company was a failure and/or scam. Starlink is a fucked up attempt to get everyone’s data… Which would be a cooler idea if it weren’t related to Musk but I need to have a tiny bit of trust in my ISP, sorry.
Only SpaceX ever did something cool, and it was legitimately really cool, and the result of good engineers doing work that Musk took the credit for.
But the way I understand is SpaceX wasn’t going into the IPO as a rocket company, they were going as an AI company. Their value was absurdly inflated because it was not based on their current space launch business or even on Starlink, but on possible future revenue (datacenters in space, you see) from the AI side of the company, which came from the xAI merge just earlier this year. Even if the company itself is solid, their stocks were still a scam.
Plus it’s Musk’s branding. Unfortunately people still buy into that guys brand. OpenAI doesn’t really have that kind of moat. just look at Samsung and Sk Hynix. Open AI and anthropic would have similar, if not worse fate
It’s a good point. He might have ruined his “brand” in some ways, but he always kept some people believing he’s some sort of super genius, the kind of people that think intelligence is directly proportional to your net worth.
He does some super cringe shit trying to pretend he’s a genius online and most don’t fall for it, but as long as some wealthy people do, he’ll continue to have his brand.
Also his stocks have made some people rich, are usually way overvalued, so even people that hate the fuck usually know not to bet against his stocks. He is pretty good at blatantly manipulating the fuck out of the market no matter what the news cycle is, and he never suffers consequences.
Imagine Hitler was a tech bro and everyone gave him money. Basically billionaires investing in concentration camps. This individual demonstrated its serious need of psychotherapy with a double(!) Hitler salute in front of a worldwide TV audience, and somehow people think it’s a great idea to throw money at it.
Oh SpaceX core business including their numbers are amazing, I agree! But they also disclosed the whole AI stuff, including the madness of “inference in space” - the physics is then only one search away. … PayPal was really cool and solved problems as well - and so did Tesla!
I think Musk is like a reverse Midas, eversthing he touches becomes shit for everyone else :/
SpaceX was by far the biggest exciting development in the last years for me … There’s still hope I’ll be wrong though - hoping for it!
Maybe he’ll die and a member of his army of children will be a better leader
The falcon 9 absolutely did cut the balls off of cost to orbit. Once they cleared the backlog of launches that had built up due to the cost and slow turnaround they had nothing to launch. Starlink is their main customer and without them the Falcon 9 architecture doesn’t have the cadence required to be profitable. Starship is the new solution in need of a problem, so what’s the problem? Data centers in space! I think they’re right up against the rocket equation with starship and they’re counting on trimming the fat to make it work. We’ll see which dies first, physics or finances.
Interesting. Why haven’t new space customers turned up now that launches are far cheaper?
I don’t know. Maybe because the main use of space is research and the military and there’s only so much of either?
Because satellites are expensive.
SpaceX is just the first time anyone commercialized NASA tech. But now a half a dozen countries and companies abroad are doing the same thing. SpaceX also failed on some big projects.
Financial Times reported that Anthropic is telling investors “gross margins are above 80% before revenue it shares with distribution partners and before the cost of training models.”
This is like saying, “I got $500 at the casino, but don’t ask me how much I spent on the slot machines”. All the AI corpos are in the same boat, so this “fear of danger” is likely a smokescreen for, “we’re hemorrhaging cash”.
No one will ever go to prison, so the scam works. Extract as much money as they can while destroying the world.
I don’t see how they’re going to meet their revenue projections when open models are largely turning LLMs into a free commodity. So far in 2026, we’ve gone from local LLMs being a toy to Qwen 3.8 27B giving the latest Sonnet 5 a run for its money. The OpenCode desktop app is also almost at parity with the Claude desktop app as well and I’ve heard Pi is pretty good too.
Now we are seeing techniques like a “phrase book” evolving to allowing a large portion of a huge model to reside on a SSD instead of in RAM / VRAM so that Opus-class models can run on a gaming PC. For example, this video is nuts: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IH8XmxiwliQ
OpenAI and Anthropic know they’re cooked, so that’s why they’re talking all this nonsense trying to keep the shell game going a while longer. 🍿
I’m so glad an at home competitive solution to the AI fuckery is here now. I hope this fast forwards the bubble bursting and pc prices go back down when an iPhone or Android phone can run an equally good AI on the device itself.
PC prices will be heated up by demand for hardware to run local models. There will always be more advanced models requiring more advanced hardware, or at least for a good while. First it’ll need better hardware to perfect the text generation, then to improve image generation, then to improve video generation, then to make flawless code in large projects like games, etc. etc.
At the very least, GPUs and RAM will probably stay overly expensive for a while.
Maybe not a mobile device, but running decent local models is definitely within reach for the average consumer today by simply adding a GPU with lots of VRAM to their existing PC.
I mean yes but those gpus are not necessarily within reach of the average consumer anymore. Even if you got one for a grand which is a lot of money you would have cooling and enclosure costs, possibly additional hardware.
Nah I got an RX 6800 XT for $300 with 16 GB VRAM, perfectly cromulent for a 27B model.
Thats is pretty decent alright, I had heard 24 was what was needed for decent local AI.
24 is ideal, 16 works fine especially with some MoE offloading. If you use llama-swap, a fast PCIe bus and fast storage is ideal. Takes about 20 seconds to swap between two models on my X570 board.
This generation of AI architecture is cooked. The bet now is that the next generation “AGI” resulting from all the new datacenters will repay the trillions invested.
the next generation “AGI” resulting from all the new datacenters will repay the trillions invested.
Too bad we don’t have the slightest clue on how to do that, except that it won’t work with LLM alone.
Oh well, let’s use the compute power for mass surveillance instead.
That company is fucked.
Indeed. Next year several billion dollar loans of theirs comes due, with more and larger ones the following year and so on.
Their business burns a gallon of gas per homework assignment cheated and Anthropic does it better while China does it cheaper.
Just another scam, move along
They can’t go public.
I bet they end up merging or being bought long before they’re actually ready to go public.
Hahaha, AI hype has already reached and past its peak, the best time to do an ipo for them is today, second best time would be tomorrow.
Sure it might be here to stay, but the gold rush FOMO phase is over.
I hope they go right under a rock and stay there.
thiel will be very disappointed his apostate.
The tech CEO’s are playing into fears of AI, because their development didn’t meet their hype.
There is no doubt, they don’t give a fuck and we all should know it. They believe in nothing except self advancement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM
Don’t believe the Hype. Yeeeeaah boooyy.
The tech CEO’s are playing into fears of AI, because their development didn’t meet their hype
Across boardrooms, overpaid MBAs constantly lose billions on the simple concept that all graphs continue to extrapolate favorably, propped up by investors who believe the same thing.
“So, how do you make your money?” “I lie”.
Good news for retail investors.
And tons of retirement funds, not just in the US. Before I took manual control of mine, about 30% was US stock indexes.
The guy goes fuzzball on telling everyday AI is going to kill us all, then “well I can’t IPO, people are afraid”?
Well, guess what my little boy, what did you expect?
Sam, we don’t believe you, you make no sense at all, you liar piece of shit.
He has a simple, but actually complicated task: boost AI hype, but reduce the competition, ESPECIALLY on the side of open source Chinese models.
That’s the sole reason for “AI is cool, but dangerous, and we must control it” and “We must break free from China” rhetoric. He is tasked to make AI grow as a proprietary technology, so that there’s any chance at all to recoup the immense investment that was made. If open, local LLMs maintain their position, OpenAI cannot leverage its own position to demand exorbitant prices for access to ChatGPT - and that is the key condition to recoup all of the investments that were made.
BUUUUULLLLSHIT. He just doesn’t want to answer honestly to shareholders. The product is a scammy money pit propped up by tissue paper and the confoolery of our liar and chief.
Reminder: none of the AI industry is remotely based in reality.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-already-in-dangerous-hands/
Is this a concession of defeat to spaceX
Probably not in AI itself but SpaceX has starlink which I believe is actually profitable
I am waiting to see how and when anthropic IPOs, because I think that is l the more important comparison. OpenAI is caught between a rock and a hard place, because they want to go public for exit liquidity, but anthropic will always be a direct comparison. And if the financials aren’t in their favor, then they won’t get the valuation they desire as the second best.
what they are really saying, especially with the “slow down china bad” rhetoric is just temporally advanced from stuff Adam Smith wrote about, long ago: they cannot keep up and are crying to the powers so shareholders are protected
