The lack of a U.S. carrier in the Pacific may be short-lived if the Navy deploys another in the next couple of months. But it shows how the open-ended operations with Iran are running some American sailors ragged, analysts say, while the Trump administration further retreats from the Asia-Pacific region and focuses on the Western Hemisphere.

“The administration says that the Pacific is supposed to be the most important behind the Western Hemisphere,” said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, the U.S. is “doing the exact opposite” of its previously expressed goal of pulling out of the Middle East.

  • jpreston2005@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    23
    arrow-down
    5
    ·
    12 days ago

    No one expects China to invade Taiwan because an American aircraft carrier has left the region. But the carrier’s absence gives the Chinese another opportunity to show its strength, said Bryan Clark, a former Navy submariner who is a defense analyst at the Hudson Institute.

    Uh, fucking, I DO!

    • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.worldOP
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      10
      arrow-down
      6
      ·
      12 days ago

      How many years and how fortuitous do the circumstances have to get before people stop insisting an invasion is imminent?

      There’s an enormous amount of value in China and Taiwan remaining friendly trading partners. Westerners refuse to acknowledge this.

      • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        10
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        12 days ago

        It would be indeed incredibly stupid for Xi to try to invade Taiwan. There’s the economic cost and there’s a real possibility that he could wind up in the same situation Trump and Putin are currently in. Lots of those pesky drones creating a stalemate situation.

        But authoritarians are being really stupid lately, so we can’t discount the possibility of Xi being as stupid as Trump and Putin.

        • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          7
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          11 days ago

          China is the one superpower who isn’t wasting their resources on a pointless war, and are investing heavily in infrastructure and their people, and their manufacturing base for EVERYTHING is unparalleled.

          They are taking over the world without firing a shot. Why would they screw that up just to take a tiny island that is no more than a symbol. Let the Westerners think they have some sort of power over them, they know the real truth.

        • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.worldOP
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          11 days ago

          we can’t discount the possibility of Xi being as stupid as Trump and Putin.

          I’m trying to think of a comparable series of blunders the Chinese have committed.

          Xi’s much more in the mold of an Obama or a Merkle than Putin or Trump

            • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.worldOP
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              6
              ·
              11 days ago

              The three-week incursion into Vietnam in 1979 was certainly a bad decision by the Chinese government. Idk if it stacks up against the American 13 year invasion, occupation, terror-bombing, and torture/assassination campaign that became emblematic of US Foreign policy. Easy to forget the scope of the difference between the two interventions, given how often modern China-watchers love to bring up the former while neglecting the latter.

              But do you have anything perpetrated by the Xi administration specifically? Or just something a sitting administrative official actually presided over?

          • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            11 days ago

            You need to cut back on all the tankie propganda you’re consuming a little bit, buddy.

      • mlg@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        12 days ago

        The funny thing is I don’t think China actually expected the US military to nope themselves out potentially faster than their ability to surpass their reliance on Taiwan. I wouldn’t be surprised if they use it to strongarm a deal into essentially purchasing Taiwan if no one is left to back them.

        • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          12 days ago

          I think everyone underestimates Taiwan. It’s not a defenseless country.

          Yes PRC has a massive army, but Taiwan is an island. The PRC military force on the island would be limited to how many they could send across the strait and maintain supply lines to. A large part of the island has cliffs for coastline, so there’s a limited number of locations they could land. The landing operation would be a bigger operation than D-Day. The Germans didn’t have much for radar and there was no satellite intel back then, and there were a lot more potential landing spots for D-Day. The Germans didn’t know where the allies would make their landing. Taiwan on the other hand will be tracking those ships all the way across the strait, and they will know exactly where they’ll be coming ashore.

          And of course there’s drones. Russia was supposed to take over Ukraine in a week (two weeks tops!) in their special operation. The US is supposed to be able to completely dominate Iran. But those damn drones are a real problem, aren’t they? Where do you suppose Ukraine gets the chips from to control those drones? Taiwan likely has the designs Ukraine is using and they have drone production going completely on their island. Even if China were to completely blockade Taiwan, they could continue to produce drones endlessly. And those Ukrainian sea babies effectively neutralized the Russian Navy. Will the Chinese Navy fare better?

          We can reasonably assume China is sharing tech with Russia to test on the battlefield against drone technology that Ukraine is likely sharing with Taiwan. Russia has to keep their navy far away from Ukraine to keep their ships safe from the drones. The US navy is keeping it’s distance from Iran for similar reasons. If China has to keep its navy far from Taiwan to keep their ships safe from drones, an invasion of Taiwan just isn’t going to work, is it?

          • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            3
            ·
            11 days ago

            Look at a a map of Taiwan in relation to China. Taiwan is tiny, and it’s right off the coast. If China wants it, there is no stopping them. We’re certainly not going to stop them with our 6000 mile supply line, and the dumbest people to ever operate a country since Caligula.

            • SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              1
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              11 days ago

              I know you’ve been conditioned to think that everything that happens in the world (both good and bad) is because of the USA. But read my post again. I’m actually talking about Taiwan’s capabilities on it’s own.

              You need to look at a map. Note that Taiwan is an island. Kinda like how Britain is an island. There was a time when some authoritarian asshole controlled most of Europe and since you love looking at maps, note that the English Channel is far narrower than the Taiwan Strait. So what does your map based analysis say about Britain’s chances against the Nazis? What about their chances against Napoleon?

              It might be harder to take over an island than you think. It all depends on how hard the people on that island are willing to fight.

        • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.worldOP
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          4
          ·
          12 days ago

          China and Taiwan already do an enormous amount of trade. And some of Taiwan’s biggest companies are heavily invested on the Chinese mainland.

          Despite the DPP’s fervent desires, that’s not going to change. So now the only question is whether an isolationistv party can continue to hold a majority in a country with an increasingly China centric economy.