From his latest article:
One of my sources has come forward and brought me a story that will possibly burst the AI bubble. The reason they brought this to me is that I’ve shown — and will continue to show — that I actually give a shit about this industry and the people in it. If you’re wondering what the story is, know that it’s the information I’ve wanted for years, delivered as I have always wanted it, and I will treat it with the reverence it deserves. Imagine what the worst possible thing for me to get would be and you’re probably close.
Link: https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/
I must say I’m pretty excited.
I mean, that’s probably something like kidney stones, but I really hope I’m not anywhere close for his sake
I think the actual worst thing might be evidence of a widespread unresolvable regression problem in the model design.
If the model training is incapable of distinguishing between AI generated data and human generated data, and unable to identify accurate data from large quantities of inaccurate data, and they’ve known about this the whole time, and they can’t figure out how to keep the models up to date with ongoing information gathering without ingesting data into the models that is toxic to the model development and usefulness…
Well then LLM progression has an expiration date. And all this investment is for naught because in X years you won’t be able to train new models without doing further irreparable damage to functionality and usefulness of the models.
And if AI companies knew about this problem, this pending cliff they were going to fall off, didn’t inform investors, and promised continued growth they knew couldn’t be achieved without a major scientific breakthrough or technology pivot, that would be pretty fucking horrible for the business of LLMs and the economy.
Wow, yeah that seems like something that’s totally plausible, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised at all if you were right.
Exactly. My bet is on “there’s a big unsolvable problem and they all know it’s going to tank the industry growth rate and they never informed anyone, hoping they could solve it in time” in some form. It’s just so on-par with how these companies operate for the most part.
And I say that as a proponent of ML (not “AI” aka “LLMs with skills”)
I suppose that’s what all those BS AI news stories were about, and like moltbook and all that other junk. Just trying to keep it alive for longer to fix it or drum up more money or get the money out of the country idk. Sheesh.
Who knows at this point? There is no shortage of grifters or “true believers” so it’s hard to say. But having worked with several different LLMs across a variety of use cases, I can say for sure that none of them are being completely honest about their shortcomings. Each model has strengths and weaknesses, all of them have unresolved issues, and all of that stuff is being swept under the rug, with the products being touted as one-size-fits-all problem solvers.
Because it’s profit driven, not research driven. The people holding the reigns really don’t care about outcomes for the people using the products, only whether they can get paid for it.
He’s pretty thoroughly covered how using just the available public information explains the insider deals and how demand for LLMs is not enough to justify the cost of developing at the scale that it is. It’s honestly hard to imagine what inside information could possibly worse.
Unless it’s something way out of left field like Nvidia chips are made of freeze-dried orphans or that Jeffrey Epstein invented LLMs.
I bet its evidence that the people involved in this are fully aware of the situation and are making plans for how to cash out and leave us holding the bag when it falls apart.
We can (and should) assume that to be the case, but actual evidence would be pretty significant.
Isn’t that what this is? Taxpayer bailout at the tippy top valuation?
Yeah I’m not quite sure, I guess the actual worst think of is something like they already got caught doing, having actual humans (slave labor) being the ones who are doing all the work in some place far away, not AI, not LLM, nothing. That would be pretty insane I guess.
I have a much more active imagination than you or Ed.
The worst is something like that we’re living in the Matrix and they’re using our brains to do some form of computation as we sleep. If we wake up into the real world, we’re not going to be wearing comfy sweaters, eating porridge, learning kung-fu, and going around in a hover-sub, instead we’re brains connected to bodies that have never had to move, and every minute being awake in that world would be a horror. The connection to AI is that the invention of LLMs and “AI” in the simulation is drawing too much computation costs for the simulation system to manage, so they’re going to reset the matrix to an earlier version soon. But, they’ve discovered we have the most vivid “dreams” if the daily news is horrific, and vivid dreams are good for their needs, so that’s what they’ll be using now to juice the power of their “coppertops”.
Haha, well what seemed like a nightmare scenario in 1999 is not so different from daily life in 2026 as it stands. People are just locked into their own worlds instead of being used as batteries, I suppose they’re technically being used as piggy banks.