U.S. soldier arrested for Polymarket bets on Maduro capture that won $400K, Justice Department says
www.cnbc.com
The arrest comes as concerns have grown about people with inside information making bets on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
  • HumanOnEarth@lemmy.ca
    245·
    2 个月前

    No matter how much Polymarket pretends to be against this, it’s exactly how it’s supposed to work.

    I know people call it glorified betting, and a ton of it is…but you can’t deny the reality that an anonymous crypto based being system is bound to be one of the best predictors of major events. For exactly the reason that insiders will inevitably find a way to make money off their knowledge.

    Everyone gets their panties in a bunch about it, but I find it a fascinating experiment on manipulating greed.

    • ideonek@piefed.socialEnglish
      31·
      2 个月前

      It’s a spying tool that inteligence agencies tried to implement in foreign countries before, but failed. You brought it on yourself.

      Also, its often self-fullfiling profecy. And it’s not as accurate as they claim.

    • Fmstrat@lemmy.world
      1·
      2 个月前

      As others have said, prediction markets are not the stock market, there is no insider trading. Insider information makes the market more accurate. It’s external places, like the military, that may or may not have rules.

      Want to know why it’s not regulated? Look at the board for the two biggest players.

  • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.worldEnglish
    10·
    2 个月前

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limited_hangout

    According to Victor Marchetti, a former special assistant to the deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), a limited hangout is “spy jargon for a favorite and frequently used gimmick of the clandestine professionals. When their veil of secrecy is shredded and they can no longer rely on a phony cover story to misinform the public, they resort to admitting—sometimes even volunteering—some of the truth while still managing to withhold the key and damaging facts in the case. The public, however, is usually so intrigued by the new information that it never thinks to pursue the matter further”.

    • Mr.robato@lemmy.world
      8·
      2 个月前

      Yep, I was thinking something along these lines. This guy is a patsy, someone else placed that bet.

    • wonderingwanderer@sopuli.xyz
      2·
      2 个月前

      What they say:

      “Yes, MKUltra has been cancelled and declassified.”

      What they don’t say:

      “The successor to MKUltra is still highly classified and very much not cancelled.”