If the U.S. enforces the new sanctions, and the E.U. actually phases out Russian energy, the Kremlin has very few options to replace the lost revenue. The recent deal with China to build another natural gas pipeline will take years to be realized, and India is now curtailing its significant Russian oil imports—after it faced Trump’s wrath and punitive 50% tariffs.

If Ukraine can keep the pressure up, it can sufficiently undermine the Russian budget to have a chance at ending the war.