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Cake day: December 9th, 2023

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  • A tank alone is almost useless, it’s big, loud, has poor visibility and big difficulties to engage close soft targets.

    You are right but it is fascinating how this is rapidly changing too…

    1. Modern main battle tanks have gotten progressively quieter. Also emissions signatures are being reduced electric drivetrains being a massive leap forward for the stealth potential of armor. They named it a Leopard not a Bear or Rhino for a reason…

    2. Modern main battle tanks have superb thermal and night vision optics. The CROWS system on an Abrams is like the turret and sensor suite of an attack helicopter bolted on top, this is in addition to the seperate main gun optics.

    3. Systems like the Bullfrog counter uav automated machine gun and PERCH uav launch system that integrate easily onto main battle tanks such as the Abrams tanks position the “western” tank as a co-interlocking platform with unmanned vehicles in a way no other platform can rival.

    A tank alone is still useless but it is anything but a legacy platform like the way people say, it is the armored control room that also happens to be located inside the big armored cannon.



  • End of 2026 Russia is going to be crumpled on the ground with Ukraine kicking them in the face to wake up so they can negotiate a ceasefire but Russia is way too fucked up to do anything coherent but lay there in the mud moaning in pain while taking drunken swipes with a knife at Ukraine in attempt to press the attack.

    I do not honestly think Russia is capable of continuing to fight that long, especially if we are talking about large mechanized assaults, certainly not at this rate of attrition and also the rate Russia is training Ukrainian personnel to be ruthlessly effective at repelling their mindless assaults as their own soldiers learn nothing and then die.

    Not to mention Ukrainian/European military technology is pulling far ahead of Russia while Russia doubles down on trying to make iterative improvements to fundamentally obsolete equipment and doctrine.

    It will be a disaster for Russia if they continue to insist on losing for that much longer.

















  • The primary use of unmanned ground vehicles are for logistics especially logistics with explodey things it is very dangerous to ask a human to carry through a battlefield. If a UGV carrying a bunch of mortar rounds is hit by an FPV drone that sucks for the mortar crew that doesn’t get ammunition but it is unimaginably better than a human being driving a truck full of mortar rounds being hit by one.

    The next most useful use of unmanned ground vehicles are for casualty evacuation under fire and under conditions too risky for humans to try.

    The third most useful is as a weapon.

    So yes this is scary but honestly a human with a gun is still far more terrifying. The broader future of these big derpy rolling ground robots are disaster response and lifesaving applications, they are useful for war too but under very specific human coordinated contexts.


  • Based on how willing those powers have been to sit by and watch the Palestinian Genocide, I think they have been sufficiently brought to heel or vice versa have brought the US to heel to the point that a shocking silence has already prevailed.

    The ducks already had to be brought in line for the Palestinian Genocide, this hardly feels like a speedbump in comparison for a lot of countries in the middle east I suspect.

    It also might honestly be that as angry as the rest of the world is, the Ukrainian war has re-emphasized how far ahead US military power and doctrine is especially in dynamic environments and OPEC just doesn’t have the basic military capability to counterbalance. Seeing Russia claim to send SAMs and associated crews to Venezuela as if Russia even has enough air defenses to defend Moscow… It doesn’t help that a lot of the best equipment Saudi Arabia and such have were bought from the US and neither China nor Russia can really claim to be on the level US and European militaries are at in sophistication and actual war experience (though obviously this is variously true and changing at a very rapid rate along many dimensions see India and the EDGE group and such, I doubt this is the likely answer).

    Or maybe, and this is MOST likely, OPEC is just used to dealing with washed up dictators that are quickly outliving their usefulness to their supporting power structures around them and knows one way or another Trump has an expiration date so escalating conflict makes less sense than posturing to cut the US out of favorable positions and biding their time until the US has a change in rulers to someone more rationally bribable again. That is what I would do, these strikes and actions against Venezuela are politically unsustainable in the US because they are so blatantly wrong and outside domestic interests.