Your #3 option is the most likely, but don’t entirely rule out #2 yet, particularly if Johnson sees the same fate as Jordan. The folks who voted against Jordan got savaged by the Right Wing media, and it’s entirely possible they’ve earned wacko primary challenges regardless of what they do next. Some of them are from competitive districts that voted for Biden in 2020. So from the perspective of their political futures, after voting against two arch-Conservatives they may feel like they can’t depend on Republican Party support anymore, and have a better chance running as an Independant in a 3-way race.
Any current Republican who decides to work with Democrats is effectively leaving the party, given how Republicans operate now. But these folks may feel like their political futures are better off if they disassociate from the Republicans, particularly if they get better committee assignments out of it, and Democrats don’t run strong candidates against them in the next election.
If these people do this, though (and again, it’s not likely to happen), it will be because they are representing districts that are not as far down the MAGA rabbit hole, and they are making the political calculation that they would be better off that way. This includes taking the threats into account, but they may be representing districts where the MAGA is a minority, and more importantly, they trust local and state law enforcement to protect them.
It is fitting that Republicans refer to their internal groups as the “Five Families”, becauwe they really are being run like Mafia families, with all the threats and intimidation that implies.
My bet since this clusterfuck started has been on option #4, which is that the House careens Speaker-less into another shutdown.
This happens not just in politics, but everywhere. When it comes down to a staredown between stubborn hardliners and moderates on any given subject, the moderates tend to blink first.
This is why it’s important to be extreme in the other direction, or even possibly deliberately pretending to be more extreme than you actually are: because moderates (read: mainstream Democrats) are incapable of dragging the Overton Window back from the brink.
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Your #3 option is the most likely, but don’t entirely rule out #2 yet, particularly if Johnson sees the same fate as Jordan. The folks who voted against Jordan got savaged by the Right Wing media, and it’s entirely possible they’ve earned wacko primary challenges regardless of what they do next. Some of them are from competitive districts that voted for Biden in 2020. So from the perspective of their political futures, after voting against two arch-Conservatives they may feel like they can’t depend on Republican Party support anymore, and have a better chance running as an Independant in a 3-way race.
Any current Republican who decides to work with Democrats is effectively leaving the party, given how Republicans operate now. But these folks may feel like their political futures are better off if they disassociate from the Republicans, particularly if they get better committee assignments out of it, and Democrats don’t run strong candidates against them in the next election.
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If these people do this, though (and again, it’s not likely to happen), it will be because they are representing districts that are not as far down the MAGA rabbit hole, and they are making the political calculation that they would be better off that way. This includes taking the threats into account, but they may be representing districts where the MAGA is a minority, and more importantly, they trust local and state law enforcement to protect them.
It is fitting that Republicans refer to their internal groups as the “Five Families”, becauwe they really are being run like Mafia families, with all the threats and intimidation that implies.
#3 leads to an omnibus since there’s not enough time for a budget which leads to this process starting all over again
No, #3 leads to a government shutdown, or a budget that is gutted to the point where the government may as well have shut down.
My bet since this clusterfuck started has been on option #4, which is that the House careens Speaker-less into another shutdown.
This is why it’s important to be extreme in the other direction, or even possibly deliberately pretending to be more extreme than you actually are: because moderates (read: mainstream Democrats) are incapable of dragging the Overton Window back from the brink.