This week, something strange happened. Oracle, a company that had just missed on its earnings and revenue estimates, saw a more-than-39% single day bump in its stock, leading a massive market rally. Why? Because it said its remaining performance obligations — contracts signed that its customers yet to pay — had increased

… Today I’m going to sit down and walk you through the many ways in which the Oracle and OpenAI deal is impossible to fulfill for either party. OpenAI is projecting fantastical growth in an industry that’s already begun to contract, and Oracle has yet to even start building the data centers necessary to provide the compute that OpenAI allegedly needs.

  • supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz
    14·
    19 hours ago

    In any case, if you trust Oracle and OpenAI, this is what you are believing:

    The AI compute industry will grow by, at the very least, 500% by 2030, to over $200 billion in annual revenue, and almost all of that growth will come from one company: OpenAI.

    That Oracle can successfully complete the data centers in question, and that said data centers will be operational in time to provide that compute.

    That OpenAI — a company with no plan for profitability — will be able to afford three hundred billion dollars spread over 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030.

    Oracle will, at this point, become a dominant player in cloud compute, with $144 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue, and it will do so mostly from one customer.

    Oracle’s cloud infrastructure revenue will increase by 700% — from $18 billion in FY2026 to $144 billion in FY2030. This represents a growth rate of 68.2% a year, again from one customer.

    Oracle will, by FY2028, be making more in cloud infrastructure (it projects to make $73 billion) than all of Google Cloud did in 2024 ($43 billion). And it’ll make it from one customer.

    That Oracle has more incoming revenue than Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, and will be making almost the entirety of that from one god damn customer.

    https://www.apolloacademy.com/ai-adoption-rate-trending-down-for-large-companies/?ref=wheresyoured.at