538 put Trump’s 2016 chances at about 75%. That means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads. It wasn’t a ridiculous outside chance at all.
People have also let Comey and his last minute letter off the hook. Polls were really close, but favored Hillary. That letter came too late for any poll to absorb the new information, but it very likely tipped the scales. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that election–it never should have been so close in the first place–but that very likely shifted the outcome.
538 put Trump’s 2016 chances at about 75%. That means Trump needed to flip two coins and have them both come up heads. It wasn’t a ridiculous outside chance at all.
People have also let Comey and his last minute letter off the hook. Polls were really close, but favored Hillary. That letter came too late for any poll to absorb the new information, but it very likely tipped the scales. There were a lot of things that went wrong in that election–it never should have been so close in the first place–but that very likely shifted the outcome.