If you scroll to the bottom of the article, they post their sources, including studies published in peer reviewed journals. I’m sure most of us see this headline and go, “Duh,” but here we have hard data. Every time our billionaire and political overlords wring their hands about birthrates, the collective response from all of us should be, “fuck you, pay me, or kick rocks.”
The problem is wages, not housing prices.
If the problem is wages, wouldn’t we expect to see Singapore, Norway, Switzerland, Netherlands, Taiwan, or the US to be leading in fertility rate? They are all near the top of per capita PPP
Singapore and Taiwan are near the absolute bottom for fertility rate (Taiwan also has relatively affordable housing)
Perhaps wealth inequality is a confounding factor here? Of those countries, only the US has particularly high wealth inequality. Japan and South Korea are among the lowest for wealth inequality
Further, when you look at the fertility rate, how many high income countries do you see with fertility rates above replacement? Very few. Then take a look at the break down by high/middle/low income countries. It’s a very strong negative correlation between income and birth rate
Finally, a very interesting country to look at: North Korea. North Korea has consistently had a steady decrease in fertility rate since the 60s. The vast majority of North Koreans do not receive wages of any kind. They do not have to pay for housing. They largely do not feel economic fluctuations… until things collapse
Which brings me to: The Arduous March. In 1995 the food supply collapsed. Within the course of a year, life expectancy dropped by 10 years. The death rate doubled. Infant mortality doubled. Yet the fertility rate continued a steady ~2% decline per year. Why?
There is a baseline decrease in fertility rate, independent of current individual economic or social conditions. Supporting this is the global birthrate decline. Global fertility rate peaked around 1960
Here is where I stray from data to draw my own conclusions: My hypothesis, based on these data points, is that modern advanced manufacturing, especially in electronics cause dispersed (e.g. air borne) environmental factors that have had the largest effect on birthrate
This explains why Japan was hit first. Why Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Singapore have the lowest birth rates in the world now. It explains why sub-Saharan Africa has the highest birth rates. Then individual variance in a region, like Switzerland compared to Italy and Finland, is then explained by all the other factors such as wages, housing commodification, women’s rights, cost of child rearing, etc.
The US has little to no advanced manufacturing these days and there are birth rate issues thousands of miles away from places where it does happen.
It’s both, and for the same reasons.
Wages - Greedy fucks wringing every cent out of the working class Housing - Greedy fucks turning shelter into a rental capture hell scape
Rent takes all surplus value, that’s it’s function.
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Corporations are always waiting for wages to go up so it can justify their inflation even if their costs do not rise.
It’s odd that when everything’s are going to be done cheaper than ever, it will cost you more.