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Cake day: January 13th, 2024

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  • According to AP VoteCast (who surveyed 110k voters), the top issue for voters was the economy, with 6 of 10 considering the economy to be not so good or poor, two-thirds were very concerned about the cost of food and groceries, 7 of 10 thinking the country is on the wrong track, and 8 of 10 looking for substantial change to how the country is run.

    This is why the Democrat messaging about the inflation rate coming under control (true) or stronger post-pandemic recovery than most other comparable nations (also true) fell flat for most voters. If someone’s real wages didn’t match the price increases to food, rent, and everything else over the last four years, then how good the GDP is doesn’t really matter to them.

    Campaigning on “things will largely be the same”, or saying you wouldn’t have done anything differently over the last four years, is always going to be a real uphill battle against an overwhelming desire for significant change.


  • After hearing Democrats talk about how they were “too woke” on transgender issues, I don’t blame anyone for feeling unwelcome.

    My problem with that is, the only time I heard Harris say trans was when she was talking about prosecuting transnational gangs. Democrats didn’t lose for being too woke, they lost cause they don’t know how to talk about the economy to blue collar workers.

    But with this Congress, this President, and this Supreme Court, including any additional conservatives judges Trump adds, no one in the crosshairs of Project 2025 should feel comfortable right now.




  • Trump’s power comes directly from the people. In a democracy, ultimately the people get the last say.

    Well it’s a representative democracy, a republic. Americans had their say two weeks ago and decided the GOP deserved the Presidency, the Senate, and the House. When combined with conservative majority on the Supreme Court, they can literally run the table for at least the next two years, regardless of any buyer’s remorse some American’s may have. Buckle up for 4 more years of outrage bait headlines and toothless responses from Democrats.





  • There were certainly votes lost in Michigan over Gaza, but even if every single Jill Stein vote was a protest vote (they weren’t), it wouldn’t have been enough for Harris to carry the state.

    The tougher thing to parse is the reason why so many voters seemingly stayed home this cycle. I think there is a very reasonable argument that not enough people were excited about her message, even the base.

    It’s a lot easier for door knockers, phone bankers, and everyday democrats to talk proudly about their candidate if they can rattle off a list of great things their candidate will do. It’s even easier if those great things hit people where they’re hurting the hardest or is the moral thing to do (healthcare for the uninsured, ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, etc.). It’s a lot tougher to get low propensity voters to show up on the harm reduction argument alone, especially if you brush past where they’re hurting or concede too much ground on your moral positions.

    The biggest issue for most voters appears to have been inflation and the economy, and while democrats were technically correct to say the rate of inflation has come down and American economic indicators outperformed most other countries in this post-pandemic period, that’s all pretty meaningless to someone whose real wage growth didn’t keep up with inflation these past few years. The “opportunity economy” and targeted small business tax cuts is a much tougher sell to someone working two+ jobs to get by.

    The other issue that dominated the media was immigration. Democrats forfeited their moral position when they offered the republican wishlist border bill earlier this year. The argument that republicans weren’t serious on the border because they didn’t support the bill fell flat, and instead democrats were (rightly) criticized for abandoning their framing of the issue as a choice between deportation and amnesty, and their previous claims the border wall was racist.

    All of that to say, democrats failed to connect with their own base on the issues that make them the party’s best messengers. Add Gaza to the list of issues where Harris could have pivoted away from Biden, instead of running into the arms of the Cheneys to chase the mythical moderate republican voter.



  • I think there’s plenty of people to be mad at, more than enough blame to go around.

    Biden could have chosen to be the transitionary president he “signaled” that he’d be by stepping out of the race 6-12 months earlier, and allowing for a full primary season for democrats to rally around a candidate and a platform.

    The Harris campaign could have rejected the failed 2016 strategy of courting moderate republican at the expense of blue collar democrats, rather than champion the Cheney family endorsement, in spite internal protests.

    I’m not willing to scapegoat just one person for this loss, this was the whole damn team. The DNC needs to realize that people vote when they’re excited to vote. That whether they’re door knocking or just talking to their friends, the base is going to get those low propensity voters out if they’re bragging about some great thing democrats will do. And it’s a lot easier when that thing is healthcare or amnesty (Obama), rather than small business tax cuts and a republican bill on the border.



  • We all have our anecdotal experiences. If you’re a college student or graduate, going to school or working in an urban environment or coastal state, the data may not reflect your lived experience. But this has been the growing trend in national polls for some time now.

    There’s also an increasing generational component to this, as millennials age out of the 18-29 demographic. If you’re a millennial, this shift may feel even more incomprehensible as millennials appear resistant to the typical conservative shift as they’ve aged.


  • try to court “moderate republicans”, which we very obviously just learned don’t actually exist.

    Exactly. For all their effort, all the campaigning with Liz Cheney, all the promises of Republicans in the cabinet, and all the war hawk endorsements, Harris lost votes with Republicans compared to Biden.

    Republicans don’t vote Democrat, stop running to the right to appease them. Democrats don’t want to hear that shit either and you need them to show up to win, so how about courting their vote instead.