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Cake day: December 31st, 2023

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  • If the problem is wages, wouldn’t we expect to see Singapore, Norway, Switzerland, Netherlands, Taiwan, or the US to be leading in fertility rate? They are all near the top of per capita PPP

    Singapore and Taiwan are near the absolute bottom for fertility rate (Taiwan also has relatively affordable housing)

    Perhaps wealth inequality is a confounding factor here? Of those countries, only the US has particularly high wealth inequality. Japan and South Korea are among the lowest for wealth inequality

    Further, when you look at the fertility rate, how many high income countries do you see with fertility rates above replacement? Very few. Then take a look at the break down by high/middle/low income countries. It’s a very strong negative correlation between income and birth rate

    Finally, a very interesting country to look at: North Korea. North Korea has consistently had a steady decrease in fertility rate since the 60s. The vast majority of North Koreans do not receive wages of any kind. They do not have to pay for housing. They largely do not feel economic fluctuations… until things collapse

    Which brings me to: The Arduous March. In 1995 the food supply collapsed. Within the course of a year, life expectancy dropped by 10 years. The death rate doubled. Infant mortality doubled. Yet the fertility rate continued a steady ~2% decline per year. Why?

    There is a baseline decrease in fertility rate, independent of current individual economic or social conditions. Supporting this is the global birthrate decline. Global fertility rate peaked around 1960


    Here is where I stray from data to draw my own conclusions: My hypothesis, based on these data points, is that modern advanced manufacturing, especially in electronics cause dispersed (e.g. air borne) environmental factors that have had the largest effect on birthrate

    This explains why Japan was hit first. Why Taiwan, China, South Korea, and Singapore have the lowest birth rates in the world now. It explains why sub-Saharan Africa has the highest birth rates. Then individual variance in a region, like Switzerland compared to Italy and Finland, is then explained by all the other factors such as wages, housing commodification, women’s rights, cost of child rearing, etc.


  • Lowering birthrates is a fascinating problem

    It’s a global problem that has affected nearly every country. There are so many different explanations going around, and we can always compare the explanations to different countries and their birthrate

    For the commodification of housing as an explanation, I can think of examples in favor of it, and that contradict it. It’s a more compelling explanation than others though

    In favor: Japan was the first country to reach extreme housing commodification levels. For about 30 years from the mid-50s to the mid 80s, Japanese housing and real estate values exploded. Very famously, the land under the imperial palace was worth more than all the real estate in California combined. Japan followed this period about 20 years later by becoming the first country to start experiencing significant birthrate decline

    China could be a good example here. Their birthrate has collapsed at the same time their housing did, but the time frame is completely different than Japan. It’s tough to use them both as an example when they have such drastically different apparent results

    Against it: The countries generally considered to have the worst housing crisis at the moment are New Zealand, Canada, and the US, yet the countries with the lowest birth rates are South Korea and Taiwan. Housing in South Korea and Taiwan is moderately commodified, but certainly nowhere near as badly as other countries

    Japan can also be an argument against it here. For the past 20+ years, housing has been extremely cheap in Japan. They thoroughly solved their housing crisis. If housing commodification is a driving cause for lowering birthrates, why has it only had a small rebound?


    As an aside, Japan solved their housing crisis by implementing an inheritance tax (which took 20+ years to really have an impact), and completely re-working zoning to be permissive by default after the bubble popped. More countries should do that, because housing is now cheaper in central Tokyo than it is in “cheap” mid-size American towns like Fargo, ND


  • MAGA - Make Argentina Great Again

    This bailout is honestly mind boggling to me. Argentina is directly competing with embattled American soy bean farmers (due to crop rotation, that’s most of them). Why is Argentina getting a bailout, but not farmers? US soybean exports were ~$25B last year

    We need to be hammering this point, because it’s one even conservatives can agree is wrong






  • A bunch of guards lined up to take selfies with me while I was sitting like that

    Really says a lot about the IDF and Israel that they’re always so excited to document the horrible things they do. They’re taking pictures so they can show other people. They think other Israelis - their friends and family - will be excited to see pictures of someone being treated horribly. Reminds me of Rachel Corrie and how they found her murder so funny they’d make pancakes with her face on it. What kind of person celebrates murder like that, and what kind of society allows such public celebration of it?

    She’s a non-violent protestor. Why do they take so much joy in being violent to her?


  • It really bothers me that Politico doesn’t make it clear whether the censoring was present in the chat, or something they added

    the members of the chat slung around an array of slurs — which POLITICO is republishing to show how they spoke. Epithets like “f----t,” “retarded” and “n–ga” appeared more than 251 times combined.

    Really seems to imply the people in the chat self-censored, and at no point did Politico state they were the ones censoring. The inconsistent censorship also means either the group was self-censoring, or Politico is doing a poor job (“r—d” is censored, but “rape” was repeatedly not censored)






  • It’s perfectly valid, and expected, that ATC would call in sick if they so much as didn’t sleep well. One mistake could cause the deaths of hundreds of people. Sean Duffy did threaten them with firings if they call in sick, but the policies didn’t change

    I’d say the vast majority calling in sick legitimately are unfit to work. The stress of non-payment is not conducive to that type of work, especially when their wages have fallen ~40% relative to inflation over the past 20 years