Link for anyone interested:

https://friendi.ca/

Based on the post, I was expected the website to look far worse.

1. I agree the onboarding isn’t great and could use an overhaul.
2. Had to specifically look search for the mascot (didn’t see it on the website) and yeah, that’s rough (starting from scratch may not be a bad idea). Flaxy O’Hare
3. The screenshot also showed a pretty basic UX that could look far better.

I guess in conclusion, I think all your points are valid.

Edit: numbered items and added missing link.

They’ve been expanding production of both large 1-way attack drones and missiles for a while. So, unfortunately, soon, this may be the new normal :(

I’m not sure if the drones use directional charges or not. My worry would be that the angle of the explosion may be changed significantly in that short time gap.

My understanding is it’s “normal” conscription, but 10k more than last year.

I believe Russian officers have been “pressuring” conscipts to sign full military enlistments before their conscription year is up and that’s part of how they have been keeping up with their losses, without sending “conscripts” to war.

The spiral was created after the rocket’s first-stage booster, which blasted it off the ground, separated and the upper stage took over, he said.

As the booster fell back to Earth, it vented leftover fuel, which froze into reflective crystals.

“These crystals caught the sunlight, creating the bright spiral pattern in the sky,” O’Donoghue said.

“The spiral shape happened because the tumbling rocket was spinning as it released the fuel.”

Source:

https://www.rfi.fr/en/international-news/20250325-spacex-rocket-fuel-makes-stunning-swirl-in-european-sky

I think the video is from Ukraine looking at the Ukrainian sky.

Edit: Video is not from Ukraine, but the effect was also seen from Ukraine. This just appears to be a good video of the phenomenon that could also be seen in Ukraine.

I made a comment a few days ago about Russian artillery loses being over 94% of there prewar stockpile. I don’t belive NK has sent more than a few hundred (500 maybe), so I think you’re right and Russians are able to repair a non-negligible amount of the systems.

Thanks for your thoughts on the subject.

I want to know where they are getting them from. Based on the number lost they should be scraping the bottom of the barrel already, not increasing usage.

Maybe the “destroyed” artillery is salvageable if you combine a few “destroyed” artilleries together. They are behind the front line so they could be able to recover most of them and try and repair them.

Any thoughts?

ReportingFromUkraine had a video a few days ago that mentioned Russians putting up netting like this near Pokrovsk (possibly different city/area). The Ukrainians used artillery to destroy a portion of the net and then sent in the drones through the gap.

According thr graph, Russia is out of 94% of their prewar stock of artillery systems. I don’t know how many they have been able to produce (I recall hearing around 250/year), buy (recall a few hundred from NK in the last shipment), or repair (???).

Graph source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/06/russo-ukrainian-war-day-1106-trump-cuts-intel-sharing-may-prevent-ukraine-from-hitting-russian-territory/

Seems like Ukraine is hitting targets with greater frequency than before.

Anyone have thoughts on if it’s increased Ukrainian skill/technology, increased Ukrainian quantity of weapons being sent, decrease in quantity of Russian anti-air defenses, Ukraine hitting ‘softer’ targets, combination of those, or something else?

Perun (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUQmJCa3aY) just released a video yesterday that went over Ukraine’s war material situation.

TLDW: Ukrainian military equipment is for the most part qualitatively better than it was at the start of the war but not quantitatively.

Russia on the other hand is qualitatively worse, is running out of reserve war equipment (Soviet stockpiles), and is expected to deplete some of categories of equipment sometime in 2024 (tank stockpile source: Covert Cabal https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K8CcuVCDEUw).

Edit: some spelling mistakes.

I had to pause it and step through the last second when time slows to see it.

True, but based on their recent loss rates (they would have about a year left of supply for both and 4 months for artillery systems), plus their general MO and battlefield “strategy”, and it seems to me more likely to be weather related.

Based on the number of tanks and Armoured vehicles it looks like the mud season may have taken full effect.

My understanding is that lot of “herbivores” are opportunistic carnivores.

I thought they were wolves or dogs when I first watched it, but you might be right about sheep.

It seems like they are running out of time.

They are running low on war material and are basically going from factory to front, but their production rate is 1/10 of their loss rate. We’ve already seen drops in losses (like artillery systems) compared to months ago, as they don’t have replacements, and have to lower the quantity they use.

Their economy is imploding (interest rates just hit 20%). The non-defense industry can’t pay for their loans and 1/3 of companies are at risk of bankruptcy in the next 6 months. But they can’t stop the war or their economy (held up by defense industry) will crater into a deep recession.

Their population is indifferent to the war, and doesn’t want to sacrifice more to help fight it. So unlikely to accept another mobilization or increased hardships.

And Ukraine just got approval to use foreign weapons in Russia.

So, yeah, Russia is probably a bit stressed at the moment.

They lost a lot at the beginning. Now they are left with what they can produce new and refurbish from storage.

I’ve seen estimates of this being 300 to 2000 tanks annually (1 to 6 tanks daily). Since they are in a big push right now they are likely using up their operational reserves that they built up over months.

So they can afford to lose more tanks than they “produce” daily, but how long they can keep up this attrition rate up is unclear. I’ve seen estimates that they have 3000ish tanks left in field/reserve/storage.

However, it’s unclear what condition these stored tanks are in. They likely used the newer tanks and those needing the least refurbishment first, leaving the only the dregs (old and heavily damaged) left.

Edit: added a couple clarifying words.

I’ve heard the Russian economy is overheating and is going to have major problems by mid 2025 (interest rates already 20+% and home mortgage rate have hit a peak at 40%). I figured that would mean that the Russian war machine would start having massive problems by the end of 2025.

But the way Russia is pushing so hard, after a Trump victory and expected US support withdrawal and pressure to negotiate, makes me think they are trying to begin negotiation on Day 1 of a Trump presidency. Which I would infer means they are in a worse position than I expected and could have massive war machine problems by mid 2025.

If Ukraine was then able to, and did continue, fighting until the end of 2025, they may start making major gains in the war against the broken Russian war machine. Putin may call a second mobilization wave to slow the Ukrainians but that may be counterproductive by causing general unrest and protestation against the war.

Really seems like it has to be electronic interference. It happens everytime the drone gets close to the soldier.