I am not sure they have to reach AGI to replace almost everyone. The amount of investment in them is now higher than it has ever been. Things are, and honestly have been, going quick. No, they are not as advanced as some people make them out to be, but I also don’t think the next steps are as nebulously difficult as some want to believe. But I would love it if you save this comment and come back in 5 years and laugh at me, I will probably be pretty relieved as well
I read an article once about how when humans hear that someone has died, the first thing they try and do is come up with a reason that whatever befell the deceased would not happen to them. Some of the time there was a logical reason, some of the time there’s not, but either way the person would latch onto the reason to believe they were safe. I think we’re seeing the same thing here with AI. People are seeing a small percentage of people lose their job, with a technology that 95% of the world or more didn’t believe was possible a couple years ago, and they’re searching for reasons to believe that they’re going to be fine, and then latching onto them.
I worked at a newspaper when the internet was growing. I saw the same thing with the entire organization. So much of the staff believed the internet was a fad. This belief did not work out for them. They were a giant, and they were gone within 10 years. I’m not saying we aren’t in an AI bubble now, but, there are now several orders of magnitude more money in the internet now than there was during the Dot Com bubble, just because it’s a bubble doesn’t mean it wont eventually consume everything.
Probably posting beans on squabbles
Indeed! That would be me, but I would now like to contribute to the totals so I am contributing this fairly worthless comment!
Today that’s true, but a year ago it had trouble writing a paragraph.