Joe Biden has been briefed on the chaotic situation in Russia with US officials describing it as “serious”.
The president was being kept informed as Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was accused by Moscow of launching an armed rebellion.
A White House National Security Council spokesman said: “We are monitoring the situation and will be consulting with allies and partners on these developments.”
A US official told CNN this crisis was “real” but the Pentagon and White House were waiting to see how it developed.
Steve Hall, former CIA chief of Russia operations, said it was in a “different league” to Prigozhin’s previous complaints against the Russian military hierarchy.
Wagner Group chief says his mercenaries will halt their march on Moscow
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/24/1184166949/wagner-group-moscow-halting-march-russia
It’s a masquerade. Wagner is controlled by GRU, and Poutine control GRU with an iron glove. This is just to kick choigou and guerassimov.
Kinda stupid way to do that, I mean they shot down multiple attack helicopters, sent cruise missiles against their own troops, and moved a lot of troops off the front during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It’s infighting and shows Putin’s weakness no matter how many layers of bullshit is under this.
Their plan is to make themselves look weak and incompetent?
I very much doubt it.
This is gonna get so fucked up.
This is either going to fizzle out in the next few days or get really ugly.
I know it’s good seeing the snake eat its own tale, but what happens if Wagner group takes over Russia? My understanding is that both the group and the guy in charge of the group are no better than Putin. Do they take out Putin, then step aside for a democratically elected president?
The plausible worst-case scenario is Prigozhin blames the war’s failures on Putin and the MoD, then calls for total mobilization and total war against Ukraine to win this. That wouldn’t bode well for Ukraine at all.
And Prigozhin and his lawless band of ex-prisoners and other violent misfits gain control of Russian nuclear weapons. There are already reports of them seizing a nuclear weapons depot. This is not a turn for the better, except insofar as it could weaken the Russians’ position in Ukraine. But if Prigozhin seizes power things could get worse again for Ukraine. Prigozhin’s whole schtick is that the Russian military leadership has been incompetent in managing the war. It remains to be seen whether he’d go back at it harder or back out of the whole misadventure, blaming it on Putin’s military leaders.
Russia has already instituted conscription and civilian terror tactics and done everything they really could do to win the war - there’s no further escalation available to them except into the realm of chemical weapons or similar, which would trigger further escalation from the west. And in the long run, NATO can outspend them - Russia’s only real source of aid is China, who will be demanding greater and greater concessions in return. On a strategic and geopolitical level, Russia lost a long time ago, and the only reason they haven’t withdrawn already is that it wouldn’t be survivable for Putin personally - he’d get couped the moment he showed weakness.
Don’t get me wrong, Prigozhin is an irredeemable monster who’s been at the head of some of the worst atrocities in Ukraine and who has based a lot of his appeal on his pyrrhic victory at Bakhmut (while also attacking Shoigu’s failures). But if the coup succeeds, he’s a monster with the political wiggle room to withdraw Russia’s dick from the Ukrainian beehive by blaming all failures on Shoigu and Putin destroying the great and powerful Russian military through their corruption and incompetence and blah blah blah stab in the back blah blah western decadence blah blah blah. And he will have significant political incentive to do so, since it will clear the way for the oligarchs to start making money again as sanctions lift.
