No that 8 to 12 seats includes all those states, finalized and not: 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 4 in FL, 1 in AL, 1 in SC, 1 in TN, and 2 maybe 3 in VA. That’s 11 or 12.
And again that’s assuming they all vote R. Gerrymandering creates more districts at the expense of making them weaker, which is precisely why Kentucky GOP doesn’t want to.
it wasn’t until California and Virginia took up the process that we were even considering the Democrats would take the house
The House has been likely to flip Dem since the beginning of 2025, before all this redistricting started. This Congress began with a 3-seat Republican majority, 220-215. That is not a big enough margin to overcome the expected flip of an average midterm cycle of 27 seats.
No that 8 to 12 seats includes all those states, finalized and not: 1 in LA, 1 in MS, 4 in FL, 1 in AL, 1 in SC, 1 in TN, and 2 maybe 3 in VA. That’s 11 or 12.
Kentucky is not redistricting but that would only be 1 more if they did.
And again that’s assuming they all vote R. Gerrymandering creates more districts at the expense of making them weaker, which is precisely why Kentucky GOP doesn’t want to.
The House has been likely to flip Dem since the beginning of 2025, before all this redistricting started. This Congress began with a 3-seat Republican majority, 220-215. That is not a big enough margin to overcome the expected flip of an average midterm cycle of 27 seats.