It’s really not just oil. The oil gets more expensive, but it becomes impossible in the short and medium term to source other petroleum byproducts, which are required components of an astounding number of other items.
Then, there is the LNG shipped through the Strait. This is used for energy in even more areas and applications than crude oil is as a fuel source and necessary aspect of oil he production of other items (e.g. the drying and curing of textiles).
Finally we come to what is most worrisome, fertilizer. The lack of such will cause famine-like conditions in entire swaths of the globe and if they don’t get out during the planting season, there is not a recovery possible — think mass starvation in a large number of densely populated regions.
This is getting a lot worse before it gets better.
I don’t think there’s a huge amount of fertilizer going through the strait, saudia arabia is the only producer that would need to do that, and while they’re in the top 5 fertilizer producers, they are #5 by a fair amount.
You had separated the two in your argument, so I focused on the fertilizer aspect which you had indicated as the most impactful. Regarding LNG, all of the countries combined that could be impacted by the strait’s closure would only just pass Iran itself to hit the #3 spot, and that’s mostly from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
All of them combined, including Iran, produce less than Russia alone, and nowhere close to the US. It’s not so much that there will be shortages due to lack of supply, there will be shortages because it will get so expensive that poorer countries won’t be able to afford it.
Or they start trading with Russia, giving them more funds for their invasion of Ukraine.
It’s really not just oil. The oil gets more expensive, but it becomes impossible in the short and medium term to source other petroleum byproducts, which are required components of an astounding number of other items.
Then, there is the LNG shipped through the Strait. This is used for energy in even more areas and applications than crude oil is as a fuel source and necessary aspect of oil he production of other items (e.g. the drying and curing of textiles).
Finally we come to what is most worrisome, fertilizer. The lack of such will cause famine-like conditions in entire swaths of the globe and if they don’t get out during the planting season, there is not a recovery possible — think mass starvation in a large number of densely populated regions.
This is getting a lot worse before it gets better.
Could it be an emergency that is very long?
I don’t think there’s a huge amount of fertilizer going through the strait, saudia arabia is the only producer that would need to do that, and while they’re in the top 5 fertilizer producers, they are #5 by a fair amount.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/fertilizer-production-by-country
Natural gas byproducts are the single most in-demand precursor for agricultural fertilizer manufacturing.
You had separated the two in your argument, so I focused on the fertilizer aspect which you had indicated as the most impactful. Regarding LNG, all of the countries combined that could be impacted by the strait’s closure would only just pass Iran itself to hit the #3 spot, and that’s mostly from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
All of them combined, including Iran, produce less than Russia alone, and nowhere close to the US. It’s not so much that there will be shortages due to lack of supply, there will be shortages because it will get so expensive that poorer countries won’t be able to afford it.
Or they start trading with Russia, giving them more funds for their invasion of Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_natural_gas_production