People in Britain who think they are governed by fools should take a closer look at the Russian and US presidents. Vladimir Putin is systematically ruining his country. His war of choice in Ukraine is an economic, financial, geopolitical and human calamity for Russia that worsens by the day. For his own murky reasons, Donald Trump, another national menace, offered him a lifeline last week. Yet Putin spurned it. These two fools deserve each other.
On the table in Moscow was a “peace” deal that, broadly speaking, rewarded Russia’s aggression by handing over large chunks of Ukrainian land, compromised Kyiv’s independence and weakened its defences against any future attack. The Trump deal, if forced through, would have split the US and Europe; ruptured Nato, perhaps fatally; reprieved Russia’s pariah economy; and probably toppled Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government.
These are key Russian war aims. But Putin, suffering from neo-imperial fantasies and legacy issues, said “no”. He reckons he can get it all, and more, by fighting on. He has persuaded the idiot Trump that Russia’s victory is inevitable – and that scheming Europeans are the real warmongers. Yet his premise is fundamentally flawed. Hard facts confound him. Almost four years on, he’s still trapped in Donbas mud and ice. And at home, things fall apart.
I’ve been hearing the same since the start of the war - Russia is running out of weapons, economy is collapsing etc. but here we are, Russia still kicking Ukraine’s ass and sending hundreds of drones and plenty of missiles each day. Russia is resilient plus help from NK, China and Iran - I doubt they will collapse anytime soon. But even if they collapse, who will get the helm? Will it be better for Ukraine? World?
In the first 2 years, we waited for use of armoured vehicles to hit their monthly rate of production. This has largely happened, the reserves of armour that USSR built up have been spent by Russia. Vehicles that still stand in parking lots require deep renovation (slow and costly). So this prediction has largely come true.
In the first 3 years, we waited for Russia’s sovereign wealth fund to empty, ending Putin’s ability to shelter the economy against the cost of war. This now seems to have largely happened, as the central bank is selling reserves of gold. It follows that more appropriate things to sell are scarce.
We also waited for Russia’s inventory of civilian planes and railway locomotives + carriages to degrade due to lack of spare parts. This has not fully come true. Planes fly less, railways transport less, but they smuggle spare parts from third countries.
We have waited for Russia’s oil and gas revenues to fall, and they have fallen, considerably. At current levels, under Ukrainian “sanctions by drone”, Russia has to cut other budget lines to finance the war - and it has cut or frozen other budget lines (social security, health care, education, almost everything - war makes up approximately 40% of the government budget).
We have waited for the wages of soldiers to drop, and for soldiers to understand that inflation will make the money they got worthless. This has only partly happened - several regions have announced that they cannot pay large one-time compensations to people going to war.
We have waited for a crisis in Russia’s economy, and in some sectors there already is a crisis. Purchases of new cars, real estate and agricultural equipment have fallen sharply. Many companies have reduced work weeks (reduced pay), owe employees wages, or cannot service their debts.
If Putin overplays his hand and economy does collapse, this does not automatically mean his replacement. He’s a dictator and has a KGB background, he knows to expect rebellions and can supress them. He knows to expect a coup and may prevent one.
Eventually he’ll be replaced. We can’t influence or predict the personal characteristics of his successor, but whoever replaces him will very surely want to end the war, and doesn’t have to save face while doing that.
However, Levada’s polls - arguably the only polls which could indicate the real state of Russian society - do not indicate the ground shifting yet. They indicate that people are universally tired of the war, but not yet willing to end it by returning land to Ukraine.
For example, the “country is going in the right direction” indicator currently stands at 65%. Surfing on waves of war propaganda, it topped at 75% last year (rising from a low of 48% before the war - explains why Putin needed the war - to secure his own power), but it’s in a downward trend.
So, sadly, propaganda is still working, but it’s not working as well as it used to. In the “battle of the fridge and TV” (for people’s opinion) sadly the TV still prevails.
One thing I learned reading the ISW’s reports (especially around the Wagner coup attempt) is that Putin is apparently a moderate in Russian politics. There are some regional leaders I might honestly prefer Putin to.
If you think of Kadyrov, he’s visibly very unwell. Watched a video of him condemning a Ukrainian drone strike recently. Barely keeps his eyes open and reads like a robot.
Yeah, the Chechen guy.
I don’t wish sickness on folks, but honestly, that’ll help me sleep easier. What he says in public is scary.
What, in your mind, is the attrition/casualty rate per kilometer of advancement by the Russian army?
I don’t think you’re getting information from an impartial news source.
What does that matter? Is Russia efficient? Probably not. Does Russia care about their casualties? Likely not. Are they throwing a ton of manpower and resources at Ukrainians? Yep. Are they advancing? Slowly, but yes, all over the front. If I have impartial news sources, please, show yours where it is shown that Ukraine is pushing Russians out instead. I’ll be more than happy to see those.
Have you ever fought/served in an armed conflict?
The phrase “Russia is kicking Ukraine’s ass.”, to me, comes from someone who is, at best, an AirSoft cosplayer.
It’s hyperbolic propaganda at face value, and doesn’t match up with credible intelligence analysis reporting from news agencies both in and outside of NATO countries. The narrative spun by such hand-waiving talk is that casualty attrition rate per kilometer gained has no bearing on logistic or strategic capability.
Anyone who has been seriously involved with warfare knows that the casualty rates of the supposed 2nd/3rd most capable military in the world are appalling considering the relatively small size of the Ukrainian military. This is an absurd gamble Putin has made. The men lost now will not be there to finally take Kyiv.
On top of that, there’s very little to stop the PLA from rolling his entire South-Eastern flank and putting their giant dick in his puckered asshole. It’s convenient for them for the Russian Federation and NATO to be occupied so they may sell their influence with relative ease, and continue dicking with their other Asian neighbors.
Do you believe that the Ukrainians will just stop fighting after Kyiv has fallen, by the way?
I also don’t take the view that the Russian Federation is “losing”. The Ukrainians are certainly barely managing a desperate struggle for survival; their only hope is international military pressure from other geographic theaters of operations and/or a collapse of Putin’s regime. They must also try to keep engaging the invading forces in a war of maneuver instead of static defense with dwindling man-power and arms.
However, despite all of that, the Orcs are far from “kicking Ukraine’s ass”. If they were, in my opinion, we’d see Russian Federation flags a few kilometers outside of Kyiv, and even more probing of Polish, Lithuanian, Estonian, Latvian, and Finnish airspaces.
I had to say something. The bullshit of “Russia is kicking Ukraine’s ass,” is too strong of an odor to ignore.
Haven’t they been liquidating good reserves just to make ends meet?
They don’t need to push Russia out so long as Russia is losing far more men and equipment. This is a war of attrition and despite being far larger Russia is losing.
Fighting age men and equipment are finite resources.
They might gain ground now but Russia will be unable to hold it, assuming that the EU and US continue to back Ukraine.
No this is the wrong takeaway. Russia is losing more than Ukraine on a day by day basis. But Ukraine is losing the attrition war.
OK, you are speaking like the Ukraine has infinite resources and tactically loosing ground just to deplete Russia. I’m sure that they have the plan to loose strategically important cities just for that.
US continue to back Ukraine? Please, do a reality check. While EU is only backing Ukraine halfheartedly and not even the entire EU.
You let the mask slip for a second there Sergei.
This is dumb. It’s dependant on the mother tongue how and if a definitive article is being used with Ukraine. In German for example, you say “die Ukraine”, and a natural translation into colloquial English results in the use of “the Ukraine”. This doesn’t mean to be a Sergei.
To a Ukrainian worried about the nation-state’s territorial integrity, that little word “the” might suggest that the speaker does not much care whether Ukraine is an independent state. Like it or not, and intentionally or not, the language a person uses reflects their political positions, including their position on Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty.
“The” before a place name is an odd choice, isn’t it? There are really very few places (in English) that have it. “The Hague” being probably the best known. There’s one locally here called “The Dalles”.
Odd that it’s so common in Spanish but not English.
Wikipedia on the Name of Ukriane
We don’t necessarily disagree, but proclaiming disregard for Ukrainian souvereignty based on the use of a definitive article in an international forum is bad faith conduct. It’s specifically an English thing and a Ukrainian/Russian thing. There are languages that are using the definitve article based on how their languages work and these kind of usages will sometimes transfer into English.
This, again, does not mean what you trying to do, discrediting another user’s opinions or arguments based on an improper use of a foreign language. That is the opposite of civil behaviour.
As a german, I had to actively learn to not use “the” in combination with “Ukraine”. It happened because of a confrontation with clever individuals like you, but that really can be done politely hinting at the proper use in the English language and not by shaming the other person.
(reup, edited out the meany words, lol, because imagine the uncivility that might be caused in this post)
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The US is still sending weapons. Check that reality.
Of course Ukraine doesn’t have infinite resources but they are spending theirs much more wisely.
Russia is already a pathetic shadow of its former self and its only downhill from here. Broke bitches thinking they’ll own Europe hah.
US is selling weapons to European/NATO countries and even that is limited. On the other hand US is appeasing and siding with Putin wherever they can which speaks more than those profit from selling weapons.
Sure they do and at the same time they don’t have enough of those. What is the endgame here? Hoping that Russia collapses somehow before they conquer whatever they are set to?
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In English you say ‘losing’, not ‘loosing’. Hope that helps.
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I think you’re being abrasive about it, but are making a decent point.
Yes, lots of clickbait exaggerated Russia’s fragility. Some actual analysts underestimated certain aspects of Russia.
And Russia won many geopolitical dice rolls:
And so on.
There are some nasty, ambitious figures in Russian politics apparently “reigned in” by Putin now. If he’s deposed… what happens? Do we get a Russia fractured by warlords armed with Soviet warheads? I’d much rather see it vassalized by China or something.
And yeah, at the end of the day this is the physically largest country on Earth, backed by the most populous, invading a tiny one. Endless war is utterly catastrophic for the Russian people, but (if the US basically withdraws from NATO and Europe keeps being Europe), they are on an extremely slow track to grind down Ukraine and claim the ashes :(
Anyway, you should read ISW’s reports on the war:
https://www.understandingwar.org/
They have a quite grounded take. And from the even before the war started (when forces massed on the border), they’ve been warning that Russia has the political power to grind on. They tried to warn policymakers about the clickbait.
India bought their oil for cheap and kept lowering the price and paid them in rupees not dollars so they had to spend that money in India.
Yeah, they are still able to trade with China (which happens to make everything anyway), and as opposed to most countries, Russia can still draw on a lot of the remaining Soviet infrastructure that was specifically built because Russia needed to be self sufficient during the cold war.
As long as Putin can manage to remain in power Russia can keep this war going.
Not for much longer. While they may have the equipment but they are lacking the most important thing: manpower. They already lost a huge amount of men and they can’t really conscript more since that will just make the collapse come faster. All those men, dead, or fighting are just people that can’t work and pay taxes, can’t start families. It’s a productivity and demographic disaster. It’s unsustainable and you don’t need an economics degree to see it.
Though I suspect the reason Putin is keeping the war going is because he has no choice. He was offered one of the best peace deals by the US and they refused it. Why? Because Putin is scared. Once the war ends a lot of angry men with combat experience are going to return home. And those men will look at how the war was run, how some people were safe while they died in the mud. That’s just a revolution waiting to happen. It has happened before, World War 1 veterans overthrew the Kaiser in Germany and installed the Weimar republic. The 1917 Russian revolution was started by WW1 veterans. Hitler was a WW1 veteran and he tapped into the anger of other veterans to help him gain power early on.
Manpower is a bigger issue for Ukraine compared to Russia. Ukraine is at least not doing human wave tactics and doing more to keep their guys alive, but Russia can last longer in that aspect as well.
I do agree that Putin can’t stop the war for anything less than complete victory, otherwise people will start asking questions about why this was necessary as you said.
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russia still has hordes of undesirables, ethnic russians to draw from. i wonder if he targets the more remote /nomadic tribes in siberia.
That’s exactly what’s been happening. Pootin lures the poverty stricken people of the tiny repressed republics, with huge (to them) sign on bonuses, so a huge proportion of the casualties comes from these people. The chuds in Moscow and St Pete’s are Pootangs base, so he doesn’t mobilize those, and it’s also where all the mineral wealth from those republics goes. The Moscow state is a colonialist power, oppressing and raping all around them, while giving nothing back in return, and that particular political situation is very explosive. Those republics don’t want to be ruzzian any more, and who can blame them? Ruzzia is only held together by military force and right now, the mighty midget Pootin, has his pants down around his ankles, and he’s trying hard to not bend over.
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russia is also a war economy, thier lackluster economy prior to war, is pretty much ruined, he has no choice.
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Yeah, but that means you’ll never find a flushing toilet outside of Moscow or St Pete’s, like ever! The midget dictator Pootang has spent all of ruzzia’s treasure bombing hospitals, and given away any future that you ruzzian peasants might have hoped for. Ruzzians will live in the mud forever. Deservedly.
It seems so, indeed.
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Worked great against Germany after world war 1.
Yeah, but no-one cares about ruzzia, it’s a bunghole country. Germany eventually got it’s shit together, and is a very respected, valuable member of humanity again. ruzzia isn’t capable of that because it only has sheep who need to be told what to blindly do between vodka shots and smokes, assuming that they don’t destroy themselves by smoking next to a gas storage tank. Ruzzia should learn to package mediocrity for export, because that’s all they do well. Oh wait, they are already exporting that… !
Russia still has plenty of customers for their exports and they won’t lose any territory after this is over.
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Its so cringe to assume any realistic comment is Russian. Its clear from your comments in this thread you have no idea what’s happening. You must get only feel good stories like the one op posted.
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Do you genuinely think im russian or support russia? I hate Russia. I wish they were losing. I am happy the war has slowed to a crawl but im not stupid enough to think its going well for Ukraine. You have no idea how moronic it looks to be gloating over the current situation as if Ukraine is about to crush Russia. So cringe
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Stop attacking other users. If you think someone is a bot, report them.
Im out. You win. I cannot argue with a schizo.
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Wow what a great person