It’s impossible to predict specific solar flares. They’re correlated with sunspots, but not closely enough to tell us anything specific and actionable, and as Gates9 mentioned downthread, we’re near solar maximum, so the sun’s at a rolling boil right now.
And, as Gates9 also mentioned, we know shockingly little about the sun. There are some good magnetohydrodynamic models of solar lines of flux in the corona and their relationship to sunspots and flares, but it’s still early days. As to what’s up in the interior of the sun, we have some grossly macro-level physical theories, but that’s about it. And even with the corona, there’s no credible explanation of something as basic as why it’s so damn hot.
It’s impossible to predict specific solar flares. They’re correlated with sunspots, but not closely enough to tell us anything specific and actionable, and as Gates9 mentioned downthread, we’re near solar maximum, so the sun’s at a rolling boil right now.
And, as Gates9 also mentioned, we know shockingly little about the sun. There are some good magnetohydrodynamic models of solar lines of flux in the corona and their relationship to sunspots and flares, but it’s still early days. As to what’s up in the interior of the sun, we have some grossly macro-level physical theories, but that’s about it. And even with the corona, there’s no credible explanation of something as basic as why it’s so damn hot.