My read on this is Trump doesn’t actually want to help Ukraine (he is buddies with Putin practically) but that Russia is doing so badly and has such a hopeless outlook that Trump in his cowardice has switched sides or at least has begun to genuinely play both sides to try to distance himself from being associated with Putin.
It also helps that Ukraine has demonstrated an undeniable value to the US militaries’ investments and approach to war both in the modernizations undertaken to US weapon systems but more importantly in the original design of cold war weapon systems and their fundamental lucidity about the nature of future near peer armored conflict. Trump desperately doesn’t want to be left out of the military industrial complex and the piles of money in it, especially because AI and crypto are utter bullshit.
This is why this slow “waffley” move to support Ukraine from Trump is so messy, contradictory and confusing.
To be honest, I’ve given up on trying to read Trump (in context of the russian invasion of Ukraine).
I just hope putin and other russian thugs continue to publicly insult and humiliate Trump. He genuinely doesn’t seem to like it and takes it very personally, which is a good thing for Ukraine.
Trump, especially at the point of mental degradation he is at, is incapable of disguising his intentions or misdirecting you. His staff are also unable to reign him in to create useful diplomatic uncertainty about what he will throw his weight behind (TACO).
The only reason this is confusing is Trump believes or believed Putin should win but saying it outloud is basic political suicide in the US and Trump sticks to no beliefs so he has been whipping back and forth like a weathervane in a storm as the calculus undeniably cements in Ukraine’s favor especially with regard to committed European support.
Nobody can precisely calculate the optimum “chicken out and support Ukraine once the writing is on the wall” point with something so complex so Trump keeps trying to guess the watershed moment but doesn’t even have the resolve to stick to his acts of cowardly selfishness. He keeps timidly guessing like an attrociously bad actor who doesn’t know the right moment to come on stage and so keeps awkwardly approaching the stage in view of the audience and then hesitating nervously.
