direct threats to a polity rally citizenry around even repulsive national governments
This is true but I suspect that attacks on remote, secret uranium enrichment facilities will not lead to particularly strong public outrage unless the Iranian government wants to stir up that outrage. If it doesn’t, it can claim that the damage wasn’t severe (as it has been doing) and then later obscure the impact of whatever restrictions it agrees to abide by. The average Iranian isn’t going to know the difference between an agreement that leaves Iran on the brink of building a bomb and an agreement that leaves it with purely symbolic enrichment capability nowhere near what building a bomb would require.
The more visible Israeli attacks may be less easy to downplay, but even there the government can ameliorate public opinion by exaggerate the scope of the damage to Israel that has already been done.
wiping out two major military-industrial centers
By that point in the war, Japan effectively had no military-industrial capability left. Its only remaining strategy was guerilla warfare in order to make conquest of the home islands cost more than what the USA was willing to pay, and in this context the atomic bombs were an act of intimidation.
In which case the barking about peace from Trump is nonsense.
Since I do think that the Iranian government still has the option to back down, I disagree with you here. I suppose we’ll see which one of us is right over the course of the coming weeks.
Trump is foolish enough that anything is possible.
I agree, and that makes me very worried even though I think that the attack on Iran is not inherently a mistake.
This is true but I suspect that attacks on remote, secret uranium enrichment facilities will not lead to particularly strong public outrage unless the Iranian government wants to stir up that outrage.
Imagine if Iran bombed remote, secret military bases on US soil and then bragged about it.
Do you think that there wouldn’t be public outrage, even if the US government tried to cover it up?
It isn’t about the nature of the target. It’s being targeted that raises hackles.
By that point in the war, Japan effectively had no military-industrial capability.
That’s not even close to true. Being horrifically outmatched is not the same as having no capacity.
This is true but I suspect that attacks on remote, secret uranium enrichment facilities will not lead to particularly strong public outrage unless the Iranian government wants to stir up that outrage. If it doesn’t, it can claim that the damage wasn’t severe (as it has been doing) and then later obscure the impact of whatever restrictions it agrees to abide by. The average Iranian isn’t going to know the difference between an agreement that leaves Iran on the brink of building a bomb and an agreement that leaves it with purely symbolic enrichment capability nowhere near what building a bomb would require.
The more visible Israeli attacks may be less easy to downplay, but even there the government can ameliorate public opinion by exaggerate the scope of the damage to Israel that has already been done.
By that point in the war, Japan effectively had no military-industrial capability left. Its only remaining strategy was guerilla warfare in order to make conquest of the home islands cost more than what the USA was willing to pay, and in this context the atomic bombs were an act of intimidation.
Since I do think that the Iranian government still has the option to back down, I disagree with you here. I suppose we’ll see which one of us is right over the course of the coming weeks.
I agree, and that makes me very worried even though I think that the attack on Iran is not inherently a mistake.
Imagine if Iran bombed remote, secret military bases on US soil and then bragged about it.
Do you think that there wouldn’t be public outrage, even if the US government tried to cover it up?
It isn’t about the nature of the target. It’s being targeted that raises hackles.
That’s not even close to true. Being horrifically outmatched is not the same as having no capacity.