Either Iran negotiates some more, digs into nuclear weapon development, has regime change, or things go to shit more broadly. Same 4 options that were available before and these strikes do nothing but make things worse for every party involved. Just more Trump machismo, best I can hope is that it’s 3 strikes and we are out… but I really doubt it.
The bombing actually makes the chances of regime change even harder. There’s nothing like being attacked by a foreign adversary to galvanize support for an authoritarian regime.
Could go both ways, really. A good part of the population - especially in big cities - is quite fed up with the Islamist regime, and a large number of them likely aren’t too thrilled about the prospect of it building nuclear weapons either. It might not be the way they would’ve preferred a regime change to happen, but if it looks like it’s about to happen, they’ll likely seize the opportunity.
Either Iran negotiates some more, digs into nuclear weapon development, has regime change, or things go to shit more broadly. Same 4 options that were available before and these strikes do nothing but make things worse for every party involved. Just more Trump machismo, best I can hope is that it’s 3 strikes and we are out… but I really doubt it.
The bombing actually makes the chances of regime change even harder. There’s nothing like being attacked by a foreign adversary to galvanize support for an authoritarian regime.
Could go both ways, really. A good part of the population - especially in big cities - is quite fed up with the Islamist regime, and a large number of them likely aren’t too thrilled about the prospect of it building nuclear weapons either. It might not be the way they would’ve preferred a regime change to happen, but if it looks like it’s about to happen, they’ll likely seize the opportunity.
You don’t revolt under bombardment.