We have achieved net-positive fusion as of last year. That’s the achievement we needed to move to the next stage, and it’s the one which was always a hopeful “maybe”. But we finally did it. It’s imperfect and needs to be refined and scaled up (another Herculean effort, to be sure), but we’ve crossed from the “is it even possible?” to the “we proved it can be done, now let’s make this into a practical technology.”
So, when scientists claim 10-20 years from now, it’s no longer hopeful speculation but a well-educated projection based on current development.
It’s not a binary, not really.
We have achieved net-positive fusion as of last year. That’s the achievement we needed to move to the next stage, and it’s the one which was always a hopeful “maybe”. But we finally did it. It’s imperfect and needs to be refined and scaled up (another Herculean effort, to be sure), but we’ve crossed from the “is it even possible?” to the “we proved it can be done, now let’s make this into a practical technology.”
So, when scientists claim 10-20 years from now, it’s no longer hopeful speculation but a well-educated projection based on current development.