cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/48006611

Russia could use the risk of a radiological incident on Ukrainian territory for information manipulation and attempts to discredit Kyiv, as Moscow intensifies nuclear threats against Western countries discussing security guarantees for Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

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Analysts note that Russian officials use statements from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to amplify rhetoric regarding potential use of nuclear weapons. Specifically, threats are directed at the United Kingdom and France — countries leading negotiations within the so-called Coalition of the Willing concerning security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.

According to ISW, the Kremlin is attempting to:

• Sow fear of escalation between nuclear powers;

• Deter European countries from providing guarantees to Ukraine;

• Force the US to limit support for these initiatives.

Kremlin may be preparing information operation

ISW analysts suggest that Russia may attempt to use a potential radiological incident for its own informational purposes. Experts assess that Moscow could:

• Cause or allow a radiological event on Ukrainian territory;

• Subsequently, blame Ukraine for using nuclear or radiological weapons.

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The report emphasizes that Russian forces regularly attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including facilities related to nuclear power. Such strikes can create a risk of radiological incidents — both intentional and accidental.

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